From: The Asian Age, Jul. 2, 1999 | OP-ED
Kargilonomics: Let's make peace, not war
By Ashim Chatterjee
Are we on the threshold of another
India-Pakistan war? With the Kargil conflict
spreading to Siachen, it is no longer a
hypothetical question. The disastrous result of
such a suicidal war is quite well known to all in
the subcontinent. Yet war has its own logic of
becoming a fait accompli even when the
resulting disaster is known. Keeping in mind the
diplomatic success which the South Block says
it has achieved, the hawks in the ruling
combination are clamouring to declare an all-out
India Pakistan war. Conservatives on the other
hand, are for a protracted war. With jingoism let
loose over the nation, none is willing to give
peace a chance.
Meanwhile, both India and Pakistan are paying a
heavy price economically, politically, materially
and in terms of human sacrifice. Though our
Union finance minister Yashwant Sinha claims
that the financial cost of Kargil is well within
manageable levels, the uncertainty that stalks
the economy is quite ominous. Sharp
fluctuations in the stock market and the erratic
behaviour of the nervous rupee in the aftermath
of Kargil are facts that cannot be wished away.
The direct cost of the military operation has been
estimated in the range of Rs 30,00,00 a day, by
the directorate of military operations. With each
Bofors shell costing between Rs 15,000 and Rs
51,000, and ammunition for the small 130 mm
guns priced at Rs 12,000 per round, one cannot
help but take this estimate with a pinch of salt. It
has been reported that 20,000 rounds of
ammunition were fired in six hours at the battle of
Tololing only. If this and other costs are taken
into account, the daily expenditure assumes an
astronomical proportion ranging between Rs 3
crores and Rs 2.5 crores. Unfavourable market
sentiments make the burden heavier.
Undoubtedly, the burden of this diversion will
be much heavier on the Pakistani economy. But
that is of little consolation to us. This will have a
lasting effect on our budget with a large
proportion of the funds allocated for education,
health and other welfare programmes, diverted.
War is a costly affair! And it is suicidal when
developing countries like India and Pakistan
indulge in it.
It becomes costlier when one counts the number
of men lost. Coffins bearing the dead who
sacrificed their today for our better tomorrow, are
arriving in large numbers. These coffins are too
handy, to stoke the fire of chauvinism. But an
increasing number of them will speak a different
language.
All these make peace mandatory. And that is the
dilemma that Vajpayeeji faces now. The Kargil
adventure has outlived its utility after satisfying
the electoral needs of the ruling combine. It must
end in a victorious note when an outright victory
is not possible given the geo-political demands
of the super powers. A protracted war may
become counter productive with time. Mr
Vajpayee has made the folly of riding a tiger!
Our stated position is that we will not brook any
third party interference in Kashmir. The
hollowness of the stand is exposed with the
government welcoming the US emissaries. So, a
peaceful solution to the Kargil crisis as well as
Kashmir issue is the only realistic solution.
Hence Mr Vajpayee should climb down from his
high horse and start a meaningful negotiation for
peace.
Waging war needs courage. But making peace
needs more so.
(* Ashim Chatterjee is the general-secretary of the Communist Revolutionary League of India, and a former leader of the Naxalite movement)
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