(From: International Herald Tribune
Paris, Saturday, May 29, 1999)
The Enhanced Dangers of a Clash Over KashmirBy Amin Saikal
CANBERRA - India and Pakistan are once again at a flashpoint over the disputed territory of Kashmir. Although the two South Asian neighbors have fought two wars before over Kashmir, there is a major difference this time: both now have nuclear weapons.
An escalation of the conflict obviously has the potential for a nuclear clash. Yet this very factor may constrain them from allowing the present fighting to develop into a major war.
But two recent developments add dangerous tinder to the present round of hostilities. The first is Pakistan's attempt to infiltrate Islamic activists into Indian-controlled Kashmir as part of a drive by the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan to 're-Islamize' Pakistan and divert attention from a grim domestic situation.
Since its nuclear tests, in response to those of India, a year ago, economic hardship and social and political disarray have increased dramatically in Pakistan.
At the same time, Islamabad's continued support for the ultra-orthodox Islamic Taleban militia in Afghanistan has backfired badly. It has isolated Pakistan in the region, worsened its relations with the United States, and radicalized the Pakistani supporters of the Taleban. They are now demanding the establishment of a Taleban-type order in Pakistan.
Mr. Sharif has pandered to this demand and moved to promote theocratic power. He has also cracked down on opposition and media critics. As a result, the need to stir up the Kashmir issue, for both ideological and diversionary purposes, has become more pressing. Hence Pakistan's support for six hundred Islamic fighters, including many Taleban supporters, to infiltrate Indian-held Kashmir in the last few weeks.
The second alarming development is in India. There, the caretaker government, dominated by the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, the BJP, under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, faces a tough election in September. BJP leaders have always been keen to raise their Hindu nationalist credentials by resorting to stirring actions.
A year ago, shortly after coming to power, they carried out a series of nuclear weapons tests, prompting Pakistan to do likewise and thus sparking a nuclear arms race in the region.
The BJP government undoubtedly sees some electoral benefit in the Kashmir conflict. The more it appears to oppose the rise of Islamic radicalism in South Asia, the greater its chances of improving its appeal among majority Hindu voters in the coming election.
Despite such domestic political factors that tend to intensify the Kashmir fighting, neither side has an interest in seeing it grow into all-out military confrontation. The Indian and Pakistani governments are well aware of the risk of a nuclear confrontation and its potentially horrific consequences for both countries.
Yet the danger with the conflict over Kashmir - which is a highly emotive and nationalistic issue for both sides - is that it could spiral into a wider war that would be difficult to limit.
(The writer is a political scientist and South Asia specialist at the Australian National University in Canberra. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.)
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